FIRST QUARTER 2013

Economic and Strategy Commentary - The New Year started off with a Bang......

The New Year started off with a bang in January when the S&P 500 jumped 2.5% on the first trading day of the year and barely stopped to take a breath before hitting a new all time high on March 31st. We had none of those roller coaster moves that have been so prevalent in some other quarters as the S&P 500 rose for 11 of the 13 weeks making up the first quarter. What led to such a strong rally? It is said that markets need to “climb a wall of worry” and that has certainly been the case in our experience. Actually, it is when everything looks rosy that markets typically peak because, at that point, everyone is in the market and no one is left to buy at higher prices. The wall of worry this time included the “fiscal cliff” drama, the sequestration drama, the continuing weakness in the Eurozone economies, the continuing problems of the EU banking system, and even the confiscation of deposits in private bank accounts on the island of Cyprus, which was heretofore unthinkable. Certain high-level Eurocrats even suggested that this could serve as a model for other EU countries going forward. This did not aid confidence in the area. And towards the end of the quarter events turned from the “subprime” to the ridiculous as North Korea suddenly ended the 1953 Korean War truce and threatened to launch nuclear missiles at the United States. Still, the markets kept on climbing....Read the complete article | download PDF

Market Commentary - 2013
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